WHEN CONFIDENCE EXCEEDS THE EVIDENCE

During my conversation with Christy Monaco, Chief Operating Officer of the Open Geospatial Consortium, she brought up the intelligence failures surrounding Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction.

I remember that period. I remember how confidently the conclusions were presented.

Christy spent decades working in the intelligence community. Her example raises an important question about the information we trust today, particularly as AI-generated answers become part of organizational decision-making.

A system can produce a convincing answer. A briefing can present a confident assessment. A decision-maker can approve an action based on either.

But how much confidence does the underlying evidence actually deserve?

That’s where I want to take this conversation with our Human Signal community.

Think about a decision you’ve been asked to approve.

What would make you question the information presented, even when the people or systems providing that information appear certain?

And what evidence would you need before putting your name on the approval?

I’ve included a short excerpt from my conversation with Christy. The full episode of The Briefing is coming soon.

Would you sign off on this?

Find the decision. Follow the evidence. Name who owns it.